And another thing…
“But Brian, does this mean you are saying that all this talk of terrorism is just hype, and isn’t ever going to happen? How do you explain 9/11, if you’re so smart?”
No, it doesn’t mean that terrorism (specifically of the Islamic Jihadist strain) is not a threat to life.
The explanation is simple. Remember the “Rational Actor Assumption”? Well, it’s based upon Western Civilization’s idea of what is rational. And in our world, it is not considered rational to want to rule the world with an iron fist and deal death to all who disagree. In our world, it is not rational to be willing to die in the process of slaughtering innocents for the purpose of sowing fear. Simply, Western Civilization’s rationality is centered on the preservation of life.
In the world of the Islamic terrorist, all these things ARE rational. Islamist rationality is based upon the concept that corporeal life is meaningless except as a vehicle to get the the next life. And to get to the right place in that next life, you need to kill certain types of people that some book says God doesn’t like. And if you happen to die while doing so, or trying to do so, POOF! straight to paradise for you.
For all its internal inconsistencies, even Communism was rational. It sought a way to create a utopian society on Earth. It failed, but that was a function of its inherent lack of ability to accomodate real humans. Islamism is NOT rational, nor is it consistent. Which is why we are justified in being wary (being afraid emboldens the enemy, so we won’t do that) of the Islamist movements sweeping the world.
And it is precisely the nature of these movements that makes an all-out nuclear war unlikely.