The “Rational Actor” fallacy and Iran
Where does Fox find these mindless drones for their “Forbes on Fox” show?
I just heard two otherwise intelligent individuals arguing that Iran getting a nuke is no big deal.
No big deal???
Here’s the arguments that they made, in short:
- Who are we to say that India can have nukes and Iran can’t?
- Iran only wants nukes for protection against other nuclear states.
- How is a nuclear Iran a direct threat to the US?
- It’s not like they’re actually going to use them.
OK, let’s address these one at a time.
Who are we? We are the lone superpower in a chaotic world. India is a mostly stable republic, Iran is a psychopathic theocracy run by lunatics.
Iran is not interested in defense. Their leaders have stated that it is a holy duty to get a nuke to destroy Israel. One of the other guests on the show made the point that “a nuclear Iran is a nuclear Hizbollah”, and noted that Hizbollah has killed more Americans than any other terrorist group than Al Qaeda.
I’ll grant that a nuclear Iran is not a direct threat to the continental U.S. But what they ARE a direct threat to is Europe. When Iran finishes their present ballistic missile development, they will be able to hit Paris. Despite our differences, France (which, for the geographically-challenged, is where Paris is) is an ally and friend of our nation.
The last one is where the true naivety shows. I’ve written before about the “Rational Actor Fallacy”, in which it is presumed that those that are perceived as threats to one’s well being are equally invested in their own survival. This was the guiding precept of the Cold War, in which we assumed that the Soviets were as keen on living as we were, and when it became obvious that a nuclear free-for-all would result in the end of both our nations (”…there’s no such thing as a winnable war…” - Sting - Russians) the likelihood of a nuclear exchange became almost nil.
Iran, however, is NOT RATIONAL. This is an important distinction, and one that cannot be taken lightly. Certainly the people of Iran don’t want to die a fiery death. But they are not in charge in Iran. The last “election” that resulted in “president” Ahmadinejad was as transparent a farce as any scam election in my lifetime. The Mullahs that run the country, and “president” Ahmadinejad have stated that it is the duty of all Muslims to push the Jews into the sea, and they have also stated that in a nuclear exchange with Israel that one or two “Islamic” nukes will utterly destroy Israel, but any Israeli response will not kill all Muslims.
Anyone who thinks that Iran will not immediately detonate any nuclear weapon that they build over Israel is either delusional or mad.
Iran needs to be relieved of its theocracy now, before they have the ability to fling nuclear death.